Forget about upgrading your starting rotation. Most Major League Baseball clubs would do well simply to tread water this winter.
Although free agency has barely begun, dueling market forces – including a weak free agent class and an inordinate number of teams aiming for contention – will create significant challenges for clubs seeking increasingly elusive reliable starting pitching.
And an analysis of major league rosters indicates demand is outkicking supply by a roughly 2-to-1 margin.
As the off-season gears up in the week preceding the winter meetings, an estimated 41 rotation openings exist, according to a USA TODAY Sports analysis of team depth charts via MLB.com and Roster Resource.
Yet just 19 starting pitchers remain from USA TODAY Sports’ list of the top 89 free agents entering this winter.
HOT STOVE UPDATES: MLB free agency: Ranking and tracking the top players available.
Certainly, there are other arms available; that list was a collection of players highly expected to receive major league contracts. Other pitchers will become available via trade. Many who in other years might have expected to receive a minor-league contract will find themselves in line for a guaranteed major league deal. Others still – such as Japanese right-hander Shoto Imanaga – have since been posted or made available.
And teams failing to add will simply have to trust an unproven young arm or cross their fingers a middling veteran improves.
But even by the rosiest computations – adding every last Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert trade chip, a Luis Severino or a Chase Anderson or a Tommy John-recovering Tyler Mahle, the shortfall is significant.
It’s also exacerbated by a dearth of young arms ready to step in. According to MLB Pipeline, two of the game’s top 20 prospects and nine of the top 50 are starting pitchers.
While roughly 11 of the top 100 can harbor dreams of reaching the bigs in 2024, just two – Giants left-hander Kyle Harrison and Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes, the reigning No. 1 overall pick – are reasonably positioned to start the year in the majors, or shortly thereafter.
Of course, necessity will be the mother of invention. Many teams will go without a fifth – heck, perhaps even a fourth – starter, opting for bullpen games or piggyback situations. But those practices are not necessarily sustainable over 162 games, especially for teams shooting for a berth in the expanded playoffs.
And in 2024, that will be roughly 25 of the 30 teams, with only the White Sox, Royals, Nationals, Pirates and Rockies not expected to aim for championship-caliber rosters.
Perhaps we’ll look back and laud the St. Louis Cardinals, who doled out eight-figure guarantees to veteran innings-eaters Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn before the Thanksgiving table was set, and then added All-Star Sonny Gray on a three-year, $75 million deal.
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For now, a look at the 30 major league rotations and their sure things, their maybes and their biggest needs in an increasingly barren marketplace, with their starter shortfall in parentheses:
Locked in: RH Kyle Bradish, RH Grayson Rodriguez, LH John Means, RH Dean Kremer
Maybe: RH Tyler Wells, LH Cole Irvin, LH DL Hall
Outlook: Baltimore must replace Gibson, who threw a team-high 192 innings, not just due to production but in signaling intent. The Orioles won 100 games last year with Gibson’s $10 million contract their largest salary; now, their staff could use another, bigger commitment to reward a core that produced the AL’s best record on a shoe-string budget. The key question: If they fail to add a premium reliever in Felix Bautista’s absence, will Wells be forced to fill a high-leverage relief role? That may impact the staff makeup significantly.
Locked in: LH Chris Sale, RH Nick Pivetta, RH Brayan Bello
Maybe: RH Tanner Houck, RH Kutter Crawford, RH Garrett Whitlock
Outlook: Subject to change – perhaps significantly, with the Red Sox linked early to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The club has both short- and long-term ramifications to consider, with Sale and Pivetta both free agents next season. Anything from a patchwork six-man rotation to a star-studded front end remains in play.
Locked in: RH Dylan Cease, RH Michael Kopech, RH Touki Touissant, LH Jared Shuster
Maybe: RH Michael Soroka, LH Jake Eder
Outlook: A new GM, an erstwhile ace with trade value. Yep, all this will change. Cease’s ERA was below league average in 2023 but his dominant track record will fetch a decent trade package. With Cease heading out and Soroka having pitched in just 10 games since 2019, the club can use a quasi-reliable veteran to chew up innings. Otherwise, it’s open auditions on the South Side.
Locked in: RH Shane Bieber, RH Tanner Bibee, LH Logan Allen, RH Triston McKenzie, RH Gavin Williams
Maybe: RH Hunter Gaddis, RH Xzavion Curry
Outlook: A rare clean sheet as the offseason begins − including four guys with ERAs far superior than league average. Bieber might find his name in trade talks and health questions surround him and McKenzie. But unless there’s a significant desire to lengthen the lineup at the expense of the rotation, these guys won’t be expected to hit the market hard.
Locked in: LH Tarik Skubal, RH Kenta Maeda, RH Reese Olson
Maybe: RH Matt Manning, RH Casey Mize, RH Sawyer Gipson-Long, RH Alex Faedo
Outlook: At long last, the Tigers have options – not the least of which is money to burn with Miguel Cabrera’s onerous contract off the books and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez opting out of his deal. Luring Maeda for $24 million over two years leaves payroll room for a higher-profile arm; the numerous internal options should cover at least one slot.
Locked in: RH Justin Verlander, LH Framber Valdez, RH Cristian Javier, RH Hunter Brown
Maybe: RH J.P. France
Outlook: Somewhat remarkably this club finished one win shy of the World Series given its rotation’s underperformance and health woes. And improved years from Valdez, Javier and Brown will have the biggest impact if the Astros are to keep pace with the World Series champion Rangers. Yet with Luis Garcia still shelved for most of the year, the club needs at least one reinforcement.
Locked in: LH Cole Ragans, RH Brady Singer, RH Jordan Lyles
Maybe: RH Daniel Lynch, LH Angel Zerpa
Outlook: What a find: Ragans posted a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts after his acquisition from Texas in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Beyond that, goodness. Lyles is back after he did what was asked – pitch 177 innings – and a few things the Royals wouldn’t have preferred (a majors-worst 17 losses and 6.28 ERA). Beyond that, well, figure on a depth arm coming in, though probably not one that will have rival clubs cursing that they missed out.
Locked in: LH Patrick Sandoval, RH Griffin Canning, LH Reid Detmers, LH Tyler Anderson
Maybe: LH Chase Silseth
Outlook: The option very much exists to run it back with the guts of a rotation that produced a 73-win season – and that will now be minus the great Shohei Ohtani. Yeah. Anderson (5.43 ERA) is still under contract for two more years and holdovers like Sandoval either regressed or failed to take significant steps forward. How motivated are the Angels to shake things up? Anyone?
Locked in: RH Pablo Lopez, RH Joe Ryan, RH Bailey Ober, RH Chris Paddack
Maybe: RH Louis Varland, LH Brent Headrick, RH Simeon Woods Richardson
Outlook: The Twins say they have to cut costs – and rival teams are too happy to oblige, with Maeda a Tiger and All-Star Gray on his way to St. Louis. Backfilling one of those spots is key insurance – especially with Paddack getting set for his first full season after Tommy John recovery.
Locked in: RH Gerrit Cole, LH Carlos Rodon, RH Michael King
Maybe: RH Clarke Schmidt, LH Nestor Cortes
Outlook: Given Rodon’s injury history, "locked in" is relative here. The Yankees may not let themselves get outbid for Yamamoto, but they really need two big arms to back up GM Brian Cashman’s expletive-laced meanderings.
Locked in: RH Paul Blackburn, LH JP Sears, RH Luis Medina, LH Ken Waldichuk, RH Mason Miller
Maybe: RH Osvaldo Bido, RH Hogan Harris
Outlook: That number in parentheses could be "5" if the A’s were serious about contending, but until there’s some sign this is anything but a ghost franchise, we’ll figure on perhaps a few fungible arms added via minor-league contract.
Locked in: RH Luis Castillo, RH George Kirby, RH Logan Gilbert, RH Bryce Miller
Maybe: RH Bryan Woo, LH Marco Gonzales, RH Emerson Hancock
Outlook: Not much room at the inn here, and perhaps that’s worth keeping an eye on. Trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto may want to deal from his surplus of arms to add offense – hard to find on this open market – and backfill with another arm, particularly with Robbie Ray still out after Tommy John surgery.
Locked in: RH Tyler Glasnow, RH Zach Eflin, RH Shane Baz, RH Aaron Civale
Maybe: RH Zack Littell, RH Taj Bradley
Outlook: Easy to imagine the Rays dealing Glasnow’s franchise-record $25 million salary to help in other areas, especially given the prices out there. But this club won 99 games in 2023, and perhaps its win curve won’t be this high for quite a while. If they’re all in, best to grab one more arm with Baz coming back from Tommy John surgery.
Locked in: RH Nathan Eovaldi, RH Max Scherzer, RH Jon Gray
Maybe: RH Dane Dunning, LH Andrew Heaney
Outlook: Retaining playoff hero Jordan Montgomery is a priority, but let’s take it a step further: They lost Montgomery this offseason and figure to lose Eovaldi – whose 2025 option is a 50-50-shot to vest − Scherzer and Heaney next winter. So why bring back Montgomery and another arm, creating enviable depth for a title defense with Dunning and Heaney at the ready while lessening the reliance on Jacob deGrom in 2025.
Locked in: RH Kevin Gausman, RH José Berríos, RH Chris Bassitt, LH Yusei Kikuchi
Maybe: RH Alek Manoah, RH Mitch White
Outlook: An Ohtani X factor team, with Manoah’s struggles adding another layer of intrigue. It seems unlikely the club will want to depend on his resurgence when so many other pieces are in place with a crucial year coming up.
Locked in: RH Zac Gallen, RH Merrill Kelly, RH Brandon Pfaadt
Maybe: RH Ryne Nelson, LH Tommy Henry
Outlook: Nelson shined in a lengthy World Series relief appearance but couldn’t hold down a starting gig entering October. With the club trending upward, expect them to opt for more certainty.
Locked in: RH Spencer Strider, RH Charlie Morton, LH Max Fried, RH Bryce Elder
Maybe: RH Huascar Ynoa, RH A.J. Smith-Shawver
Outlook: Don’t let the certainty fool you: GM Alex Anthopoulos seems determined to upgrade the rotation, perhaps via trade. Yes, teams with actual starter depth can thin the pool, too.
Locked in: LH Justin Steele, RH Jameson Taillon, RH Kyle Hendricks
Maybe: LH Jordan Wicks, RH Javier Assad
Outlook: A huge X factor here, since their interest in Ohtani and perhaps retaining free agent Cody Bellinger could get spendy even before addressing this year’s rotation. Prospect Ben Brown may arrive sometime in ’24, but manager Craig Counsell’s hiring says they’ll hit the ground with a contention-ready team.
Locked in: RH Hunter Greene, LH Andrew Abbott, LH Nick Lodolo, RH Graham Ashcraft
Maybe: LH Brandon Williamson
Outlook: They could break camp today with a passable starting rotation, but dig into the innings counts, injury histories and peripherals and the Reds need some help. Not likely to shop in the high-rent district, but they may need to act soon to add reliable innings coverage.
Locked in: LH Kyle Freeland, RH Cal Quantrill, LH Austin Gomber
Maybe: RH Ryan Feltner, LH Jalen Beeks, RH Connor Seabold, RH Peter Lambert
Outlook: With German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela still recovering from Tommy John surgeries, a high-ERA group remains. They may just cobble from within, and any free agent willing to take their talents to Denver likely won’t leave contenders kicking themselves.
Locked in: RH Walker Buehler, RH Bobby Miller
Maybe: RH Ryan Pepiot, RH Emmet Sheehan, LH Ryan Yarbrough, RH Gavin Stone, RH Michael Grove, RH Nick Frasso
Outlook: Let’s get weird, folks! So many questions surrounding a team with so much money and perennially high expectations. What might they expect out of Buehler coming off a long Tommy John surgery? Will they sign Ohtani – and if so, do they want to spend huge dollars both to make up for his ’24 pitching absence and give him a future co-pilot? Will Clayton Kershaw figure into this year? How much do they trust their young pitchers after an early playoff flameout? The wildest winter in recent memory for a club coming off 100 wins is in the offing.
Locked in: LH Jesús Luzardo, LH Braxton Garrett, RH Eury Perez, RH Edward Cabrera, LH Trevor Rogers
Maybe: RH Sixto Sánchez, LH Ryan Weathers
Outlook: Once again, very subject to change. New GM Peter Bendix is an unknown quantity but, given his Rays lineage, will be aggressive. And the Marlins have a modicum of pitching depth even as Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara and Max Meyer are shelved with Tommy John surgeries − so, a trade to add hitting could send one of the above out.
Locked in: RH Corbin Burnes, RH Freddy Peralta, RH Adrian Houser
Maybe: RH Colin Rea, LH Robert Gasser
Outlook: Brandon Woodruff is gone, Counsell is gone and the Brewers hold one of the biggest offseason trade chips in Burnes. Hold and try to capture 88 wins again? Trade Burnes and maybe others, too, for a full-fledged reset? Milwaukee’s direction(s) will have a big impact on the market.
Locked in: LH Jose Quintana, RH Kodai Senga
Maybe: RH Tylor Megill, LH Joey Lucchesi, RH José Butto, LH David Peterson
Outlook: Just because they’ve kicked the $43 million starter habit doesn’t mean the Mets will roll out half the Syracuse Chiefs’ projected rotation. No, owner Steve Cohen almost certainly will swipe a big-money name off the top of the free agent board and new GM David Stearns likely won’t stop there.
Locked in: RH Zack Wheeler, RH Aaron Nola, LH Ranger Suárez, RH Taijuan Walker, LH Cristopher Sanchez
Maybe: RH Mick Abel
Outlook: Might want some sixth-starter insurance, but after signing Nola to a $172 million deal to keep him off the market, this is as shovel-ready a group as they come. Don’t sleep too much, though: Wheeler is entering his walk year.
Locked in: RH Mitch Keller, RH Luis Ortiz
Maybe: RH Quinn Priester, RH Roansy Contreras, RHP Paul Skenes, LH Bailey Falter
Outlook: Once again, Pittsburgh is left to decide what combo of veterans, prospects and bargain-bin reinforcements will comprise its rotation while pondering the two developments that really matter: When to promote No. 1 overall pick Skenes, and how aggressively they attempt to lock up Keller, who’s two seasons from free agency. Contreras (11 starts, 6.59 ERA) and Priester (eight starts, 7.74 ERA) took their lumps as rookies and for now have nothing in their way.
Locked in: RH Yu Darvish, RH Joe Musgrove
Maybe: LH Ryan Carpenter, RH Matt Waldron, LH Adrian Morejon, LH Jay Groome, RH Pedro Avila
Outlook: GM A.J. Preller doesn’t deal in "maybes." So watching him backfill rotation holes left by free agents Blake Snell, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha while the club reportedly must cut costs will be fascinating. Even if they trade slugger Juan Soto or scrimp around the edges, it makes little sense for the Padres to pair five nine-figure contracts with a rotation that has little chance at success. Get your popcorn.
Locked in: RH Logan Webb, RH Anthony DeSclafani, RH Ross Stripling
Maybe: LH Kyle Harrison, RH Alex Cobb, RH Keaton Winn, RH Tristan Beck
Outlook: Team Volatile, what with a new manager, pitching coach, a GM feeling the heat and a desire for someone, anyone to take their big free agent dollars. Ohtani? Snell? With All-Star Cobb out until around May with hip surgery, the club would love for top prospect Harrison to seize a rotation spot. But beyond that, they need something more to sell than holdovers Webb, DeSclafani and Stripling.
Locked in: RH Sonny Gray, RH Kyle Gibson, RH Miles Mikolas, RH Lance Lynn
Maybe: LH Steven Matz, LH Drew Rom, LH Matthew Liberatore
Outlook: They jumped the market like a cornerback sniffing out a wide receiver screen, adding Gray, Gibson and Lynn before your leftover turkey turned bad. And they still might not be done – that’s how bad Cardinals pitching was last season.
Locked in: LH Patrick Corbin, RH Josiah Gray, LH MacKenzie Gore, RH Trevor Williams
Maybe: RH Jake Irvin
Outlook: It’s possible they simply roll with the five names above, but with Cade Cavalli not expected back until later in the year after Tommy John surgery, it’d be unrealistic to expect this group to hold up without some reinforcement.
